BANGKOK: With just three days before the planned major anti-government rally in Bangkok, security has been tightened as tension rises over the city, but analysts say that no side would win the fighting, neither the government nor the pro- Thaksin movement.
USE OF SECURITY LAW INEVITABLE
Somchai Phagaphasvivat, a veteran political analyst on Wednesday told Xinhua that he expects the turnout of the “red- shirted” protestors at 100,000 to 200,000, not one million claimed by the organizers.
The pro-Thaksin United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship or the UDD has announced that it will organize some 1 million people, mainly from the north and northeast region on Friday and march to Bangkok before holding a mass rally two days later.
On Tuesday, the cabinet decided to impose the Internal Security Act (ISA) from Thursday to March 23 to ensure peace and order during the rally. The law will cover the whole area of Bangkok and nearby Nonthaburi province as well as 21 districts in other six provinces surrounding the capital.
On Wednesday, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban said security forces have been alerted to monitor 30 to 40 areas in the capital that might be targeted for bomb attacks. The high-risk areas included key government installations and public places.
There is possibility that chaos and violent clashes may occur during the rally and the announcement of use of ISA and other security laws is inevitable judging from last year’s experience, Dr.Somchai said.
Last April, the red-shirted demonstrators led by the UDD broke into the then-ongoing 14th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits in eastern beach resort city of Pattya, forcing the meetings to be canceled. The rally aiming to oust the government later escalated into clashes with the military and Bangkok residents, leaving more than 100 injured and two dead.
The government led by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will never dissolve the parliament as the UDD requested, because the government has done nothing wrong, Mr. Somchai said.
Echoing the Somchai’s view, Chalermchai Boonyalipan, Secretary- General of a think tank “Siam Wisdom Network”, on Tuesday said in an interview with Thailand’s PBS TV that he thought there are two conditions for a peaceful rally.
“Feasible demands and demonstration process,” he explained, “In the past, the yellow-shirts’ protest are much larger and violent than the red-shirts, but government led by then Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat did not dissolve the parliament as the demonstrators demand.”
THAKSIN’S POPULARITY DECLINES
Of course, former exiled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinnawatra is the main driving force behind the rally, but analyst believe that his popularity has declined as the public, especially grass-root people have more awared of what happend in the country, especially after the recent Thaksin’s asset case verdict.
Thailand’s Supreme court on Feb. 26 handed down a verdict ruling that 1.4 billion U.S. dollars of all the 76-billion-baht (2. 3 billion U.S. dollars) of Thaksin’s frozen assets will be confiscated.
A recent survey showed that 47.14 percent of the Thais do not want to see the rally happen for fear that it might resort to violent or do not want to see infighting among Thai people.
Some civic groups on Tuesday issued a joint statement, calling on the demonstrations to be peaceful.
Gothom Arya, Director of Research Centre for Peace Building, Mahidol University said after meeting with UDD core leaders that Veera Musikhapong, one core leader assured him that the red- shirted protestors will demonstrate peacefully.
Gothom said that his group will also meet with Korbsak Sabhavasu, secretary-general to Prime Minister Abhisit , who has been appointed to chair a committee for negotiating with the protestors.
Besides, with the effort of both government and private sector, the fragile economy hit by international financial crisis has gone out of bottom.
Prime Minister Abhisit expected early this month that the economy may expand by as much as 4.7 percent this year as exports, tourism and private investment have shown clear signs of steady recovery over past three to four months.
Economic performance of Abhisit government has changed some grass-root people’s mind who has now viewd the government in a more postive way. Judging from Abhisit’s performance since he took office over one year ago, the prime minster has gained more strength and acceptance, Somchai said.
“As long as Mr. Abhisit can hold on power, he will be the legitimate government,” said the lecturer.
INTERNAL FIGHTING SEES NO WINNER
Commenting which side would win the fighting, the veteran political observer said that everyone is a loser.
“Thai people as a whole are the loser, because this kind of demonstration, without cause, without ideologic clash, should never happened in Thailand in the 21st century, it is just out of support for one person, ” he said.
The tourism industry has lost more than 1 billion baht (30.5 mln U.S. dollars) in hotel bookings because of cancellations ahead of this weekend’s rally, according to Association of Thai Travel Agents chairman Aphichart Sangka-aree.
Tourism revenues account for 6 percent of Thailand’s Gross Domestic Product. The Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported that the number of foreign tourists visiting the country in 2009 was 14. 09 million, down 3 percent on 2008, with a total income of 527 billion baht (16.1 bln U.S. dollars), down 8 percent from the previous year.
“If the government wins the struggle, the situation will back to normal in a sense, but if the other side wins, that could lead to political changes, during which the process will not be peaceful,” Somchai said. “Anyway, we’re still in a situation when political elections occur from time to time.”
There will be no peaceful political development during the next two to three years, the peaceful situation is just a peaceful thinking, he added.
